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<blockquote>“How do we get fundamentally new things out of relationships of things where that didn’t exist before? Emergence is the closest thing to magic that’s actually a scientifically admissible term. ” - Daniel Schmachtenberger</blockquote>Coherence occurs when different parts come together and create something greater. The difference is emergence.  
<blockquote>“How do we get fundamentally new things out of relationships of things where that didn’t exist before? Emergence is the closest thing to magic that’s actually a scientifically admissible term. ” - Daniel Schmachtenberger</blockquote>Coherence occurs when different parts come together and create something greater. The difference is emergence.  


Coherence enhances evolutionary fitness because emergence may create properties that offer some evolutionary advantage. Things can come together in various ways. Adaptions that offer the most advantages are selected for and are what drives the arrow of evolution.
Coherence enhances evolutionary fitness because emergence may create properties that offer some evolutionary advantage. Things can come together in various ways. The ones that came together and offered the most advantages are selected for and are what drives the arrow of evolution.  


In complexity theory, evolution is defined as more elegantly ordered complexity.
In complexity theory, evolution is defined as more elegantly ordered complexity.


From the big bang to stars to chemicals to planets to single-cell organisms to multi-cell organisms to humans, the universe has selected for increasing elegantly ordered complexity.
From the big bang to stars to chemicals to planets to single-cell organisms to multi-cell organisms to humans, the universe has selected for increasing elegantly ordered complexity.  


On the opposite side, defection, which occurs when parts are not aligned with the whole, is selected against. An example, and an instance of a multipolar trap, is the tragedy of the commons. In this scenario, a person exploits a shared resource at the whole community's expense instead of cooperating to ensure sustainability. Reciprocally, this incentivizes others to exploit the resource, too, defecting on the global optimum, thereby rendering the system eventually self-terminating. Thus, avoidance of defection in favor of coherence also enhances evolutionary fitness.[[File:Thresholds of increasing complexityB.png|center|800x800px]]
On the opposite side, defection that occurs when parts are not aligned with the whole is selected against. An example is the tragedy of the commons, whereby a person exploits a common resource for their own gain at the expense of the whole instead of cooperating to ensure the resource is used sustainably. The result is that it incentivises others to also exploit the resource, thereby defecting on the global optimum, and thereby rendering the system eventually self-terminating. So, avoidance of defection in favour of coherence also enhances evolutionary fitness.
As [https://www.bighistoryproject.com/home Big History] suggests, new complexity results from having both the proper ingredients and goldilocks conditions. As an example, after the universe created stars, it consisted of hydrogen and helium only. When giant stars ran out of hydrogen, they collapsed, and with high enough temperatures, the fusion of helium nuclei created many different elements that form our periodic table. This collapse brought increased complexity that could lead to the formation of planets.
[[File:Thresholds of increasing complexityB.png|center|800x800px]]
As [https://www.bighistoryproject.com/home Big History] suggests, new complexity results from having both the proper ingredients and goldilocks conditions. As an example, after the universe created stars, the universe consisted of only hydrogen and helium. When giant stars ran out of hydrogen, they collapsed and with high enough temperatures, the fusion of helium nuclei created many different elements that form our periodic table. This brought increased complexity that could lead to planets.
[[File:New chemical elements.png|center]]
[[File:New chemical elements.png|center]]


=== Our Human Advantage is Collective Intelligence ===
=== Our Human Advantage is Collective Intelligence ===
Skipping forward, the evolution of humans was a big milestone in the history of the universe. For the first time, something could contemplate its existence and consciously change the future.  
Skipping forward, the evolution of humans was a big milestone in the history of the universe. For the first time, something had the ability to contemplate its existence and consciously change the future.  


[[wikipedia:Homo_sapiens#Anatomical_modernity|Anatomically modern humans]] evolved about 150,000 years ago. As [[Jordan Hall]] mentions, human evolution required many different pieces to come together. They include:
Anatomically modern humans evolved about 150,000 years ago. As Jordan Hall mentions, the evolution of the human needed many different pieces to come together. They include:
*Humans beginning to grow larger and larger crania
* Significant increases of the gestation period
*Increased male attention in parenting
*Grandmothers living long enough to provide resources and knowledge for support
According to [[wikipedia:Behavioral_modernity|The Late Upper Paleolithic Model]], humans were neither cognitively nor behaviorally "modern" until around 50,000 years ago. Jordan Hall characterizes this shift in human capacity as the emergence of our collective intelligence toolkit, including abstract thinking, planning depth, and symbolic behavior.


[[wikipedia:Yuval_Noah_Harari|Yuval Harari]] called this emergence the Cognitive Revolution. Humans became the first species that could learn collectively rather than merely individually. Collective learning meant that with each generation, ideas and knowledge accumulated, and more information was retained than lost, allowing humans to become successively more powerful.
* Humans beginning to grow larger and larger crania
* Significant increases of the gestation period
* Increased male attention in parenting
* Grandmothers living long enough to provide resources and knowledge for support, among others
 
According to The Late Upper Paleolithic Model, humans were not cognitively or behaviorally "modern" until around 50,000 years ago. Jordan Hall characterizes this as the emergence of our collective intelligence toolkit including abstract thinking, planning depth, symbolic behavior, among others.<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity#cite_note-McBrearty_Brooks_2000-2</ref><ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_modernity#cite_note-Henshilwood_Marean_2003-3</ref>
 
This represented what Yuval Harari called the Cognitive Revolution.Once we passed a threshold, humans became the first species that could learn collectively and not just as individuals. Collective learning meant, with each generation, ideas and knowledge accumulated and more information was retained than lost, allowing humans to become more and more powerful.
 
So, our evolutionary advantage was our ability to collectively learn and collaborate. It is encoded in our genes.


Hence, the human evolutionary advantage was constituted in the ability to learn collectively and collaborate. It is encoded in our genes.
=== Humans Found Coherence Under the Dunbar Number ===
=== Humans Found Coherence Under the Dunbar Number ===
With the new collective intelligence toolkit, groups of humans gathered at the band level numbering between 5 to 150. These groups were meta-stable due to the high level of coherence and ability to police defection. Robin Dunbar found a correlation between primate brain size and average social group size. He proposed that for humans, 150 appears to be the limit of our neurological capacities to model every other member and all of the complexities of relationships. At 150, Dunbar speculated that 42% of the group's time would need to be devoted to [[wikipedia:Social_grooming|social grooming]].  
With this new collective intelligence toolkit, groups of humans gathered at the band level numbering between 5 to 150. These groups were meta-stable due to the high level of coherence and ability to police defection. Robin Dunbar found a correlation between primate brain size and average social group size and proposed that for humans, 150 appears to be the limit of our neurological capacities to model every other member and all of the complexities of relationships. At 150, Dunbar speculated that 42% of the group’s time would need to be devoted to social grooming.  


As [[Jim Rutt]] hypothesized, a band that could have coherence at 150 had a substantial advantage over a band that could only have coherence at 80, so there was a group selection advantage. There was an evolutionary benefit of forming larger neocortices until the limit of the pelvic girdle in the human female was reached.
As Jim Rutt hypothesizes, a band that could have coherence at 150 had a very substantial advantage over a band that could only have coherence at 80, so there was a group selection advantage. There was a ratchet for more neocortex until the limit of the pelvic girdle in the human female was reached and that was how he converged to the Dunbar number of 150.


As examples, Dunbar found 150 as the estimated size of a Neolithic farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a discipline's sub-specialisation. As bands approach 150, they tend to fractionate into two units.
As examples, Dunbar found 150 as the estimated size of a Neolithic farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a discipline's sub-specialisation. As bands approach 150, they tended to fractionate into two units.


With high degrees of coherence under 150, humans quickly acquired an asymmetric position relative to their natural environment and began to shape nature for their own needs. This asymmetric power allowed humans to spread, survive, and thrive in most environments, assuming the role of apex predators. Ever since the Cognitive Revolution, humans have been able to change their behavior quickly, transmitting new behaviors to future generations without any need for genetic or environmental changes. Consequently, the speed of evolution became dominated by cultural evolution rather than biological evolution.
With high degrees of coherence under 150, humans very quickly became asymmetric with the rest of nature. This allowed humans to spread, survive, and thrive in most environments. We quickly became the peak predator. Ever since this Cognitive Revolution, humans have been able to change our behaviour quickly, transmitting new behaviours to future generations without any need for genetic or environmental changes. So, the speed of evolution became dominated by cultural evolution rather than biological evolution.


Even with new (digital) technology increasing social connectivity across the globe, research still indicates that humans are somewhat restricted by the Dunbar number in the number of stable social relationships. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3149601/ A study of Twitter activity by Gonçalves, Perra and Vespignani in 2011] validated the Dunbar threshold insofar as biological and cognitive limits still apply in the current attention economy.
=== How Did We Lose This Coherence? ===
=== When was this coherence lost? ===
Humans spread and dominated every niche. By 11,000 years ago, the population grew to 6 - 8M, which was about the largest forager population the planet could support.


Agriculture arose independently across the world, starting in Mesopotamia, 11,000 years ago. This was likely because:#Global temperature rose after the last ice age
==== Agriculture allows for larger population ====
#Humans gained a deeper understanding of plants and animals
Humans quickly spread and dominated every niche. By 11,000 years ago the population grew to 6 - 8M, which was about the largest forager population that the Earth can support.
#Human communities grew dense, entailing increasing competition for resources
 
Farming allowed for the support of a larger population, taking up a much smaller land area than foraging. As humans began to organize beyond the Dunbar number, a larger population lead to more options for defection.[[File:Agriculture emergence.png|center]]
Agriculture arose independently across the world starting in Mesopotamia, 11,000 years ago. This was likely because:  
 
# Global temperature rose after an ice age
# We gained more understanding of plants and animals
# Human communities became more dense, and there was increasing competition for resources
 
Farming allowed humans to support a larger population with a much smaller land area than foraging. As humans began to organize beyond the Dunbar number, the larger population meant there was more space open for defection.
[[File:Agriculture emergence.png|center]]
[[File:Global temperature and agriculture.png|center]]
[[File:Global temperature and agriculture.png|center]]


==Enter Game A ==
=== Enter Game A ===
In the intimate context of hunter-gatherer life, defection was difficult. As societies increased in complexity, and people interacted with strangers, the civilization toolkit emerged to police defection.
In the intimate context of hunter-gatherer life, defection would be difficult. As societies became more complex, and people were interacting with people that they did not know, the civilization toolkit emerged to police defection.
===Introduction of scarcity ===
 
With the advent of agriculture, humans started to shape the environment for their own needs. For the first time, farming allowed the creation of a  surplus. As Daniel Schmachtenberger notes, this created the concept of (property) ownership since now there was something to own. Ironically, the notion of scarcity and the need to distribute scarce resources among the population followed - the beginning of economics.
==== Introduction of Scarcity ====
===Game A's primary problems===
While humans were foragers, we were a part of the ecology and lived in relationship with the natural world. With the advent of agriculture, humans have shaped the environment for their own needs. Farming also allowed humans to produce enough food so that there was surplus. This created the concept of (property) ownership since now there was something to own. Ironically, this also created the concept of scarcity, and hence created the beginning of economics, and how to divide up scarce resources amongst the population.  
Game A is almost everything that humans have been doing to design their world, especially in the last 10,000 years, to coordinate beyond the Dunbar number.
 
==== Game A's Primary Problems ====
Game A is almost everything that humans have been doing to design our world, especially in the last 10,000 years, to coordinate beyond the Dunbar number.
 
Game A, fundamentally, is about being able to solve these three primary problems:
 
# '''Resource production''' - coordinate people together such that they can extract resources from nature and provide for the well-being of the group
# '''Interior defection''' - survive internal defection as the population begins to grow well beyond the Dunbar number.
# '''Exterior competition''' - survive and be victorious in competition with other human groups
 
So, Game A is primarily characterized by scarcity and thus rivalrous or win-lose dynamics. How do we increase our resources production? How do we divide up the scarce resources? How do we compete with other groups of people?
 
So, Game A is primarily characterized by scarcity and thus rivalrous or win-lose dynamics. How do we increase our resources production? How do we divide up the scarce resources? How do we compete with other groups of people? Civilization became the toolkit to solve these problems. Civilisation is characterised by the continued effort to police local defection against the global optimum, but through a growing dependence on formal institutions and less on interpersonal relationships (although this still continued to an extent).
 
=== Game A's Increasing Complexity ===
 
==== Chiefdoms ====
After agriculture first spread across a region, with enough surplus, chiefdoms tend to follow. Anthropologist Robert Carneiro defines a chiefdom as “an autonomous political unit comprising a number of villages or communities under the permanent control of a paramount chief.” The exception was Papua New Guinea probably because the root crops could not be stored and agriculture was not quite productive enough to generate surplus. Chiefdoms, the scholar Randolph Widmer has written, “were at various times the most common form of society found throughout Europe, Africa, the Americas, Melanesia, Polynesia, the Near East, and Asia.”
 
==== Agrarian Civilizations ====
Chiefdoms sustained the basic trend toward larger and more complex social organization. The chiefdoms’ villages evolved into something more like towns, then city-states, then multi-city states, and then civilizations.
 
As farming technologies became more complex and more productive, they eventually allowed for the creation of larger, more populous and more complex societies. These agrarian civilizations appeared all over the world. They are usually divided into 4 world zones: The Americas, Afro-Eurasia, Australasia, and the Pacific Island societies. Although every civilization was different, they had many things in common. They all had big cities. These cities had monumental architectures like temples, pyramids and palaces. They also had rulers, hierarchies, tax systems, armies and a large population of peasant farmers to support the civilization.
[[File:Four world zones.png|center]]


Game A, fundamentally, is about being able to solve three primary problems:
=== Game A Tools ===
#'''Resource production''' - coordinate people for the extraction of resources from nature, providing for the group's well-being
With scarcity and non-rivalrous dynamics in Game A comes the power to influence and control resources.
#'''Interior defection''' - survive internal defection as the population begins to grow beyond the Dunbar number.
#'''Exterior competition''' - survive and out-compete other groups
Accordingly, Game A is primarily characterized by scarcity and thus rivalrous or win-lose dynamics: How do we increase our resources production? How do we divide up the scarce resources? How do we compete with other groups of people?


Civilization became the toolkit to solve these problems. Civilization exerts continued effort to police local defection against the global optimum. However, this policing has been resting on a growing dependence on formal institutions and less interpersonal relationships.
Some tools used by Game A to do this and solve the three problems of resource production, interior defection and external competition are:
===Game A's increasing complexity ===
====Chiefdoms====
After agriculture first spread across a region, with enough surplus, chiefdoms tended to follow. Anthropologist Robert Carneiro defines a chiefdom as "an autonomous political unit comprising a number of villages or communities under the permanent control of a paramount chief." The exception was Papua New Guinea, probably because the root crops could not be stored, and agriculture was not quite productive enough to generate a surplus. Chiefdoms, the scholar Randolph Widmer wrote, "were at various times the most common form of society found throughout Europe, Africa, the Americas, Melanesia, Polynesia, the Near East, and Asia."
====Agrarian civilizations====
Chiefdoms sustained the basic trend toward larger and more complex social organization. The chiefdoms' villages evolved into greater conglomerates like towns, then city-states, then multi-city states, and then civilizations.


More refined and productive farming technology eventually allowed for the creation of more populous and more complex societies. These agrarian civilizations appeared all over the world. They are usually divided into four world zones: The Americas, Afro-Eurasia, Australasia, and the Pacific Island societies. Although every civilization was different, they had many things in common. They all had big cities. These cities featured monumental architectures like temples, pyramids, and palaces. They also had rulers, hierarchies, tax systems, armies, and a large population of peasant farmers to support civilization.[[File:Four world zones.png|center]]
* Formal Roles and Hierarchy
===Game A's tools===
* Formal Narrative / Religion
With scarcity and rivalrous dynamics in Game A comes the power to influence and control resources.
* Armies / Police
* Formal Law


Game A strategies to solve the three problems of resource production, interior defection, and external competition are:
*Formal Roles and Hierarchy
*Formal Narrative / Religion
*Armies / Police
*Formal Laws
==== Formal Roles and Hierarchy ====
==== Formal Roles and Hierarchy ====
For the first time, with chiefdoms, there existed groups under the permanent control of a paramount chief. A chief's status was usually based on kinship, which was inherited or ascribed rather than derived from achievements like it was for leaders at the band level.  
With chiefdoms, for the first time there are groups of people under the permanent control of a paramount chief. A chief’s status is usually based on kinship, so it is inherited or ascribed instead of achieved status like leaders at the band level.  


Chiefdoms relied on the centralization of authority, entailing pervasive inequality. This hierarchy resulted in at least two inherited social classes;  farmers extracting resources from the environment, and a ruling elite that extracted resources from the farmers.
Chiefdoms are characterized by centralization of authority and pervasive inequality. With chiefdoms, for the first time, there were at least two inherited social classes. Farmers extract resources from the environment, and there was a ruling elite above them that extracts resources from the farmers.  


Through this exploitative dynamic, the ruling elite could accumulate surplus from other people's labor rather than their own. As Daniel Schmatchenberger says, this was the beginning of a [https://civilizationemerging.com/new-economics-series-part-iv/ new multiplicative economy].[[File:Hierarchy.png|center]]
Through this rent-seeking dynamic, the ruling elite could accumulate surplus from the labor of other people and not their own. As Daniel Schmachtenberger says, this was the beginning of a [https://civilizationemerging.com/new-economics-series-part-iv/ new multiplicative economy].
In civilizations, specialist roles began to emerge like potters, merchants, priests, and soldiers. People held formal roles. There were a few wealthy, politically powerful people and many more comparatively poor commoners who had little political influence and almost no possibility of acquiring it. As single-city kingdoms became multi-city empires with vast territories, the hierarchy became more rigid.    
[[File:Hierarchy.png|center]]
In civilizations, specialists began to appear like potters, merchants, priests and soldiers. These were formal roles that people had. There were a few rich, politically powerful people and many more comparatively poor commoners who had little political influence and almost no possibility of acquiring it.  As single-city kingdoms became multi-city empires with vast territories, the hierarchy became more rigid.   


==== Sacredness of the Ruling Elite ====
==== Sacredness of the Ruling Elite ====
Chiefs had demigod status and possessed religious authority. They often styled themselves as representatives of gods and performed rituals that only they could perform.
Chiefs had demigod status and possessed religious authority. They usually became the representative to the gods, and performed rituals that only they could perform.
 
Observed over the past few centuries, chiefdoms have gone to great lengths to underscore their chiefliness. Many forms of chiefly self-advertisement are enduring such as monumental architecture. These include the huge mounds built in North America as tombs for past chiefs, pyramid-like temples on Tahiti, and even the giant stone heads on Easter Island.


Surveying the past few centuries, chiefdoms went to great lengths to legitimate their supremacy. Many forms of chiefly self-advertisement are enduring, such as monumental architecture. These include the vast mounds built in North America as tombs for past chiefs, pyramid-like temples on Tahiti, and even the giant stone heads on Easter Island.
Similarly, in agrarian civilizations, the ruler commonly became a god-king with absolute authority.  The Pharaohs of Egypt are a prime example of this. They were thought to be not just mortals but god-kings. As living gods, their authority was absolute. They also had monumental architecture like huge pyramids.


Similarly, in agrarian civilizations, the ruler became a god-king with absolute authority. The Pharaohs of Egypt are a prime example of this. As living gods, their authority was absolute, as illustrated by monumental architecture like large pyramids.
==== Formal Narrative/Religion ====
==== Formal Narrative/Religion ====
Any large-scale human cooperation is rooted in shared myths. The crucial historical role of religion has been to give superhuman legitimacy to structures of states. Religion asserts that laws are not susceptible to human fallibility, but are ordained by an absolute and indisputable authority. This exempts them from critique and ensures social stability. As Yuval Harari describes, "The imagined order is inter-subjective." It exists in the shared imagination of everyone.  
Any large-scale human cooperation is rooted in common shared myths. The crucial historical role of religion has been to give superhuman legitimacy to structures of states. Religion asserts that the laws are not the result of human fallibility, but are ordained by an absolute and indisputable authority. This helps push them beyond challenge and thus ensuring social stability. As Yuval Harari describes, “The imagined order is inter-subjective.It exists in the shared imagination of everyone.  


==== Armies/Police ====
==== Armies/Police ====
As Chris Boehm suggests, it was the development of weaponry that allowed two betas to kill an alpha, and thus one alpha could not dominate unchallenged, resulting in an essentially egalitarian hierarchy at the band level. With the extra resources, Chiefdoms could assemble military forces and break out of the anti-hierarchical operating system that prevailed on the band level.  
As Chris Boehm suggests, it was the development of weaponry that allowed two betas to kill an alpha and thus one alpha couldn't dominate and the band level was essentially egalitarian. With the extra resources, Chiefdoms could assemble military forces and break out of anti-hierarchical operating system that we had at the band level.  
 
In 1970, the American anthropologist Robert Carneiro developed the coercive theory of state formation that suggested increasing population pressure in early agricultural societies would have resulted in intensive competition with other societies for scarce resources such as land, water, salt, and wood. This would have triggered wars of conquest. Centralized governments would have developed to mobilize and direct armies. According to Carneiro, the armies would continue to exist to control conquered peoples, collect tribute, and allocate resources.
 
==== Laws ====
Written laws came into existence after writing was invented. Writing allowed these laws to be easily shared and inscribed. As an example, the Code of Hammurabi of 1776BC presented Hammurabi as a just king and served as the basis for a more uniform legal system across the Babylonian Empire. It asserted that Babylonian social order is rooted in universal principles of justice, dictated by the gods. According to the code, people are divided into two genders and three classes. With this collection of laws and consequences and the threat of force, social order was created that was clear and enforced.
 
=== The Industrial Revolution Creates a Global Society ===
As the Persians, Romans, and Mongols civilizations expanded and developed long-distance trade routes to expand their regional influence. New transportation and navigational technologies would connect all world zones.
 
This leads us to what I would argue is the second of 4 major revolution in human history
 
* '''Agriculture''' (human energy to animal energy)
* '''Industrial''' (animal energy to mechanical energy)
* '''Software''' (mechanical energy to digital energy)
* '''AI''' (digital info to intelligence)
 
The Agricultural Revolution allowed humans to better harness the energy from the sun that gets captured by plants. Animals like horses and oxen can pull carts and carry burdens, which is 10 times more than human could do.
 
The next big revolution was the Industrial Revolution and it created the world we live in today. The industrial revolution is arguably the primary cause of the dramatic trajectory change in human welfare that began 1800 - 1870. As [http://lukemuehlhauser.com/three-wild-speculations-from-amateur-quantitative-macrohistory/ Luke Muehlhasuer] write, “Everything was awful for a very long time, and then the industrial revolution happened.”
[[File:Industrial revolution.png|center|1000x1000px]]
As the diagram shows above, all 5 measures of well-being dramatically increased after the Industrial Revolution


In 1970, the American anthropologist Robert Carneiro developed the coercive theory of state formation. It suggests that increasing population pressure in early agricultural societies resulted in intense competition with other societies for scarce resources such as land, water, salt, and wood. To persist in the ensuing wars of conquest, centralized governments developed to mobilize and direct armies. According to Carneiro, armies continued to exist to control conquered peoples, collect tribute, and allocate resources.
# Physical health, as measured by life expectancy at birth.
==== Formal Laws ====
# Economic well-being, as measured by GDP per capita (PPP) and percent of people living in extreme poverty.
Written laws came into existence after writing was invented. Writing allowed these laws to be easily shared and inscribed. For example, the Code of Hammurabi of 1776BC presented Hammurabi as a just king and served as the basis for a more uniform legal system across the Babylonian Empire. It asserted that Babylonian social order is rooted in universal principles of justice, dictated by the gods. According to the code, people are divided into two genders and three classes. With this collection of laws imposed through the threat of force, a social order was created that was clear and binding.
# Energy capture, in kilocalories per person per day.
===The Industrial Revolution created a global society===
# Technological empowerment, as measured by war-making capacity.
As the Persian, Roman, and Mongol civilizations expanded, they developed long-distance trade routes to expand their regional influence. New transportation and navigational technologies started to connect all world zones.
# Political freedom to live the kind of life one wants to live, as measured by percent of people living in a democracy.


The Agricultural Revolution allowed humans to better harness the sun's energy, yielding more caloric output. Animals like horses and oxen pulled carts and carried burdens ten times heavier than humans could.
Before the Industrial Revolution, in the 1400s, the world was still divided into 4 isolated world zones: the Americas, Australasia, the Pacific, and Afro-Eurasia. The European exploration eventually united all four world zones and we became a global species with a huge global exchange network. Technologies, innovations, ideas, goods and belief systems could be shared across the world.


The next big revolution was the Industrial Revolution, which saw the origins of the modern world we live in today. The industrial revolution was arguably the primary cause of the dramatic trajectory change in human welfare, starting between 1800 and 1870. As [http://lukemuehlhauser.com/three-wild-speculations-from-amateur-quantitative-macrohistory/ Luke Muehlhasuer] write, "Everything was awful for a very long time, and then the industrial revolution happened."[[File:Industrial revolution.png|center|1000x1000px]]
The Industrial Revolution’s large impact may have been from these 4 factors:
As the diagram shows above, all five measures of well-being dramatically increased after the Industrial Revolution:
#Physical health, as measured by life expectancy at birth.
#Economic well-being, as measured by GDP per capita (PPP) and percent of people living in extreme poverty.
#Energy capture, in kilocalories per person per day.
#Technological empowerment, as measured by war-making capacity.
#Political freedom, as measured by percent of people living in a democracy.
Before the Industrial Revolution, in the 1400s, the world was divided into four isolated world zones: the Americas, Australasia, the Pacific, and Afro-Eurasia. European exploration eventually united all four world zones, and humans became a globally connected species. Technologies, innovations, ideas, goods, and belief systems were shared across the world.


The Industrial Revolution's marked impact is attributable to four factors:
==== Cheap Fossil Fuels ====
==== Cheap Fossil Fuels ====
Coal, oil, and natural gas served as new sources of energy. These fossil fuels, storing energy from the sun for hundreds of millions of years, allowed the powering of engines of all kinds.  
We found new sources of energy: coal, oil and natural gas. These fossil fuels stored energy from the sun for hundreds of millions of years. We learned how to use this energy to power engines of all kinds.  


Wood was the primary source of energy in the pre-industrial world. For the same amount of heat, coal required much less labor to mine than cutting wood, and coal was much more abundant than wood, supplies of which were becoming scarce.[[File:Energy sources.png|center]]
Wood was the main source of energy in the pre-modern world. For a given amount of heat, coal required much less labour to mine than cutting wood, and coal was much more abundant than wood, supplies of which were becoming scarce.
[[File:Energy sources.png|center]]


==== Improvements to the Steam Engine ====
==== Improvements to the Steam Engine ====
Fundamental improvements to the steam engine were essential for the Industrial Revolution. Technical enhancements by James Watt saved 75% of coal costs and allowed steam engines to be used in various industries. The steam engines could use the untapped sources of coal to generate cheap energy and mechanically move large loads. By the early 19th century, steam engines drove industrial-scale production. The innovations of railways and steamships revolutionized transportation as well.  
Fundamental improvements to the steam engine were important for the Industrial Revolution. Changes by James Watt that saved 75% of coal costs and allowed steam engines to be used in various industries. The steam engines could use the untapped sources of coal to generate cheap energy and mechanically move large loads. By the early 19th century, steam engines were being used for industrial-scale production. The innovations of railways and steamships revolutionize transportation as well.  


==== Increases in Commerce and Global Markets ====
==== Increases in Commerce and Global Markets ====
In agrarian civilizations, elites tended to extract resources through the threat of force. Increasingly, there emerged other classes of merchants and artisans who profited via competitive markets. To succeed, they needed to be innovative with their goods and services to flourish in competitive markets. By 1500, expanding global networks of exchange increased the importance of commerce and markets everywhere.  
In agrarian civilizations, elites tended to extract resources through the threat of force. However, there was another class of merchants and artisans who got money through competitive markets. To succeed, they needed to be innovative with their goods and services. So, in the areas of commerce, there were many ideas exchanges and new innovations generated, and competitive markets flourished. By 1500, expanding global networks of exchange increased the importance of commerce and markets everywhere.  


==== Science Revolution Brought Growth in Knowledge ====
==== Science Revolution Brought Growth in Knowledge ====
Science differed from previous knowledge traditions by admitting ignorance, testing hypotheses, which lead to a surge in new technologies. As Francis Bacon argued "knowledge is power." Science is a particularly useful method to understand causal relationships.  
Science differed from previous traditions of knowledge by admitting ignorance, testing hypotheses and acquiring new powers to develop new technologies. As Francis Bacon argued “knowledge is power.
 
Until the Scientific Revolution most human cultures did not believe in progress. When modern culture admitted that there were many important things that it did not know, and that scientific discoveries could provide real progress, people began suspecting that real progress was possible.
 
During the last 5 centuries, humans increasingly came to believe that they could increase their capabilities by investing in scientific research. This began a strong feedback loop where the more resources that governments and people put into the science, the more knowledge and power they got.


Before the Scientific Revolution, most human cultures did not emphasize progress and had a static view of the world. During the last five centuries, belief in increased prosperity and well-being by virtue of scientific research strengthened. A strong feedback loop developed, whereby the more resources groups invested in science, the more knowledge and power they received.
=== Game A's Trends of Emergence ===
=== Game A's Trends of Emergence ===
Since the beginnings of agriculture, there have been some trends of emergence through innovation, which explain humanity's path into the modern era::
Looking back from the start of agriculture, there have been some trends of emergence through innovation to help understand how we got to the modern era:
*Improvements and innovation in transport and processing of energy, matter and information.
 
*A positive feedback loop: more population leads to more emergence and innovations, while more innovations allow for more population.
* Human history has seen improvements and innovation in transport and processing of energy, matter and information.
*In rivalrous dynamics, societies must embrace innovation or get conquered by more advanced societies.
* We have a positive feedback loop: more population leads to more emergence and innovations; more innovations allows for more population.
*Innovations often redistribute power within societies.
* For a rivalrous dynamic, societies must adopt new innovations or get conquered by more advanced societies.  
* New innovations often redistribute power within societiesLooking back from the start of agriculture, there have been some trends of emergence through innovation to help understand how we got to the modern era:
 
==== Improvements and Innovation in Transport and Processing of Energy, Matter and information. ====
==== Improvements and Innovation in Transport and Processing of Energy, Matter and information. ====


===== Energy =====
===== Energy =====
[[File:Energy usage.png|center]]
[[File:Energy usage.png|center]]
As we moved from hunter-gatherer to agricultural civilization to modern civilizations, energy demand continually increased. Today, we can harness energy from the environment (sun, water, wind) and nuclear, which is the same way stars generate energy. As Daniel Schmachtenberger says, "we now have the power of the gods."
As we moved from hunter-gatherer to agricultural civilization to modern civilizations, the amount of energy used has continued to increase. As mentioned before, we have moved from human power to animal power to mechanical power. Today, we are also able to harness energy from the environment (sun, water, wind) and nuclear, which is the same way stars generate energy. As Daniel Schmachtenberger says, “we now have the power of the gods.


===== Matter =====
===== Matter =====
With increased energy, we could move matter faster and easier. Our transportation technologies have moved from animal and horses to trains and ships. Today, we can almost send and receive anything anywhere within days. Furthermore, commercial flights and space missions are possible.  
With the increase in energy, we could move matter faster and easier. Our transportation technologies have moved from animal and horses to trains and ships. Today, we could almost send and receive anything anywhere in days. Furthermore, we have the ability to fly and send people into space.  


===== Information =====
===== Information =====
Many information technologies have dramatically increased humanity's ability to coordinate. Two primary innovations were writing and the printing press. First, writing helped store knowledge efficiently for centuries. Second, the printing press drastically reduced the cost of printing books and spreading knowledge. The printing press helped overhaul religious ideology and ushered in both the scientific and industrial revolutions.
Many information technologies have dramatically increased human’s ability to coordinate. Two noteworthy innovations were writing and the printing press. First, writing helped store knowledge easily across century. Second, the printing press drastically reduced the cost of printing books and spreading knowledge. The printing press helped overhaul religious thought and ushered in both the scientific and industrial revolutions.


Before the 20th century, information spread through our transportation technologies like trains and ships. In the 20th century, this changed with the invention of the telegraph, the telephone, the computer, and the internet. The latter allows us to connect with anyone in the world in seconds. The distance between people has continued to decrease over time.
Before the 20th century, information spread through our transportation technologies like trains and ships. In the 20th century, this changed with the invention of the telegraph, telephone, computer and internet that allowed us to connect with anyone in the world in seconds. The distance between people has continued to decrease over time.


With this decreased distance in communication, people with common interests can come together. This has lead to tribalism that fragments the population (ex. dissolution of Yugoslavia). On the other side, globalization of economics and culture integrates the world. This represents a tension between fragmentation and integration.  
With this decreased distance, smaller and smaller communities of common interest can come together. This has lead to tribalism that fragments the population. On the other side, globalization integrates the world.    


Furthermore, with the information revolution, information is encoded in bits with 1s and 0s and copied at a very low cost. Instead of atoms, these bits have very little weight and travel close to the speed of light.
Furthermore, with the information revolution, information has become easily coded in bits with 1s and 0s and copied with very low cost. Instead of atoms, these bits have very little weight and travel close to the speed of light.
 
Other social and information processing technologies include the invention of money and markets. Money added liquidity to exchanges of goods. Markets brought together many buyers and sellers and used price to efficiently value goods and services.


Other social and information processing technologies include the invention of money and markets. Money added liquidity to exchanges of goods. Markets brought together many buyers and sellers and used prices to efficiently value goods and services.
==== More Population Leads to More Innovation; More Innovations Allows for More Population ====
==== More Population Leads to More Innovation; More Innovations Allows for More Population ====
[[File:Population over time.png|center]]
[[File:Population over time.png|center]]
With the agricultural and industrial revolutions, the human population has dramatically expanded. With the industrial revolution, the global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.6 billion in 2018. There is concern that the exponential population growth is putting a strain on natural resources, food supplies, and housing.
With the agricultural revolution and industrial revolutions, human population has dramatically increased. With the industrial revolution, the global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.6 billion in 2018. There is fear that the exponential population growth is putting strain on natural resources, food supplies, housing, etc.


Additional population provides more nodes for emergence and innovation. The potential for collaboration and interactions grows exponentially with the number of people.[[File:Historical population over time.png|center]]
Additional population provides more nodes for emergence and innovation. The potential for collaboration and interactions grows exponentially with the number of people.
[[File:Historical population over time.png|center]]


==== For a Rivalrous Dynamic, Societies Must Adopt New Innovations or Get Conquered by More Advanced Societies ====
==== For a Rivalrous Dynamic, Societies Must Adopt New Innovations or Get Conquered by More Advanced Societies ====
<blockquote>Selfishness beats altruism within groups, but altruistic groups beat selfish groups. The rest is commentary. - David Sloan</blockquote>Throughout history, more advanced civilizations generally conquer less advanced civilizations. This is exemplified by the former European colonization of most of the world.  
<blockquote>Selfishness beats altruism within groups, but altruistic groups beat selfish groups. The rest is commentary. - David Sloan</blockquote>Throughout history, we have seen the more advanced civilization generally conquer the less advanced civilizations. This is how the European countries colonized most of the world.
 
This means that because of the rivalrous dynamics, similar to evolution, the weaker civilizations will not last and the ones with greater coherence, emergence and innovations will continue to spread. With the pressure of rivalry, the arrow of complexity continues to increase through this mechanism.


Due to rivalrous dynamics, similar to evolution, the weaker civilizations will not last, and the ones with greater coherence, emergence, and innovations will continue to spread. Accordingly, complexity surges.
===== New Innovations Often Redistribute Power Within Societies =====
===== New Innovations Often Redistribute Power Within Societies =====
Innovations often expand the number of people who profit from the system and so wield power within it. There is a [[wikipedia:Hobson's_choice|Hobson "take it or leave it" choice]] for governing elite: accept valuable technologies that may erode power or block them, which carries the risk of being outrivaled by a more advanced group.
Innovations often expand the number of people who profit from the system and so wield power within it. There is a Hobson choice for governing elite: accept valuable technologies that may erode power or resist them that you get overrun by a more advanced group of people.
 
The medieval historian Joseph Strayer once noted “an interesting problem in the history of civilization. If there is steady progress anywhere, it is in the field of technology, and yet this kind of progress seems to have little connection with the stability of society.


The medieval historian Joseph Strayer once noted "an interesting problem in the history of civilization. If there is steady progress anywhere, it is in the field of technology, and yet this kind of progress seems to have little connection with the stability of society."
Elites dislike power shifts. For example, the instinct of feudal lords was to exploit the emerging class of merchants. But it didn't take long for the merchants to unite into guilds and demand freedoms. Increasingly towns won the right to self-government as Feudal lords were in competition and soon realized that local prosperity was good for them and that prosperity required a bit of freedom.  


Elites dislike power shifts. For example, the instinct of feudal lords was to exploit the emerging class of merchants. However, it didn't take long for the merchants to unite into guilds and demand freedoms. Increasingly towns won the right to self-government. Feudal lords were in competition and soon realized that local prosperity was good for them, but required a bit of freedom.
A more recent example, the legacy of capitalism’s growing power can be seen as democracy is widespread and greater amounts of people have more representation and voting rights.


A more recent example, the legacy of capitalism's growing power can be seen as democracy is widespread and more people have more representation and voting rights. (?)
Technology, time and again, has changed the balance of power within society. And people tend not to surrender power gracefully. This basic tension between the aggrandizing instincts of powerful people versus the decentralizing tendencies of technology, especially information technology has played out again and again. As trend throughout history has generally that the power of the individual has continually increased.


Technology, time and again, has changed the balance of power within society. Moreover, people tend not to surrender power unopposedly. This underlying tension between the aggrandizing instincts of elites versus the decentralizing tendencies of technology, especially information technology, has played out repeatedly.
== Where are We Today? ==
===The status quo===
Our quality of life has never been higher.
====Our quality of life has never been higher====
 
As described in the previous section, for the first time, there exists a globally connected human society. There are billions of people who can instantly communicate with each other. We generate enormous amounts of energy. We understand quantum mechanics and relativity theory. We have markets that can solve most of our needs efficiently. Medical advancements have increased average life expectancy from 32 years in 1900 to 71 years in 2018.  
As we saw in the last section, for the first time, we have a globally connected human society. We have billions of people who can instantly communicate with each other. We generate enormous amounts of energy. We understand quantum mechanics to relativity. We have markets that are able to solve most of our needs efficiently.  Medical advancements have increased life expectancy from 32 years in 1900 to 71 years in 2018.  
 
Here are some other metrics that show the progress we have made, 200 years ago vs 2015:
 
* 94% vs 10% of people lived in extreme poverty
* 83% vs 14% did not have a basic education
* 88% vs 15% were not able to read
* 99% vs 44% did not live in a democracy
* 100% vs 14% were not vaccinated
* 43% vs 4% of kids died before they were 5


Here are some other metrics that show the progress we have made, 200 years ago vs. 2015:
*94% vs. 10% of people lived in extreme poverty
*83% vs. 14% did not have a basic education
* 88% vs. 15% were not able to read
*99% vs. 44% did not live in a democracy
*100% vs. 14% were not vaccinated
*43% vs. 4% of kids died before they reached the age of five
[[File:World as 100 people.png|center|1000x1000px]]
[[File:World as 100 people.png|center|1000x1000px]]
Now, there are many more metrics to look at. We still have a lot more progress to make, but conditions of life have significantly improved for most people compared to just a century ago.
Now, there are many more metrics to look at. And we still have a lot more progress to be made. But things are so much better.


== The Crises Produced by Game A ==
== The Crises Produced by Game A ==
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* Daniel Schmachtenberger
* Daniel Schmachtenberger
</blockquote>
</blockquote>'''For the First Time, We are Facing Threats to All of Humanity'''
====Global threats to all of humanity====
 
With all this progress, we have become an interconnected world that is susceptible to collapse.
With all this progress, we have become an interconnected world that is venturing to collapse.
 
Here are 4 big problems:
 
# '''Exponential tech''' - We have exponential tech in a win-lose world that poses an existential risk
# '''Environment''' - We are that now are affecting the planets
# '''Fragility''' - We are living in a fragile interconnected world
# '''Poorer Sensemaking''' - There is a war on sensemaking


Here are four big problems:
#'''Exponential tech''' - Exponential tech in a win-lose world poses an existential risk
#'''Environment''' - Human activity dramatically affects our planet
#'''Fragility''' - The modern, interconnected world is fragile
#'''Poorer sensemaking''' - There is a war on sensemaking
=== Exponential Technology in a Win-Lose World Poses an Existential Risk ===
=== Exponential Technology in a Win-Lose World Poses an Existential Risk ===
In the 1940s, humanity has gained the ability to self-destruct entirely via nuclear weapons. Other advancing technologies that improve exponentially are AI, synbio, and nanotech. If technological development continues, small groups or even individuals could gain the capacity to devastate all of civilization. Nick Bostrom calls this the [https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf Vulnerable World Hypothesis] in his 2018 working paper.  
For the first time, we have technologies that could wipe out all of humanity. This started with nuclear in the 1940s. Other coming technologies that improve exponentially are AI, synbio, nanotech, etc. If technological development continues, small groups to individuals could have the capabilities to devastate all of civilization. NIck Bostrom calls this the Vulnerable World Hypothesis in his 2018 working paper.
 
Game A is about scarcity and thus win-lose dynamics. If we people disagreed, they would fight it out. Today, that fight could produce catastrophic damage. Imagine someone with a gun or bomb that could blow up a whole block now had the capability to blow up a whole country because they are unhappy. This means if there are agents that are misaligned with the whole, there could be disastrous consequences.


Game A is about scarcity and, thus win-lose dynamics. Disagreement often ends in war. Today, this belligerence could produce catastrophic damage. Imagine someone with a gun or bomb that could blow up a whole block now could blow up a whole country because they are unhappy. In other words, misaligned agents could bring about disastrous consequences.
In Game A, it was important to build up offensive capability or defensive capability or be killed. This is prisoner’s dilemma or multi-polar trap, where the equilibrium that is good for the agents is not good for the whole. We have gone from stone tools to guns to weapons of mass destruction. With exponential tech, it is now lose-lose for everyone because any war may blow up everything.


In Game A, rivalrous dynamics push groups to amplify their offensive and defensive capacities in order to survive. This is a '''prisoner's dilemma or, more abstractly, a multipolar trap''', where the agent's optimal equilibrium contrasts with the global optimum. Destructive potential expanded from stone tools to guns to weapons of mass destruction. With exponential tech, it is now '''lose-lose''' for everyone because any war may blow up everything.
For example, right now there is Arms race between China, US, Russia to develop autonomous weaponry. They may signed “Pledges” to not build the weaponry but they could defect or sign it and do it in secret. As an example, China indicated in April 2018 its support of ban on battlefield use of autonomous weapons and then on the same day released plans for an intelligence swarm designs. These win-lose dynamics also incentives speed and the need to cut corners while developing technologies.


For instance, there is an arms race between China, the US, and Russia to develop autonomous weaponry. Irrespective of any mutual assurances, each party could defect, constructing these weapons secretly. Contrarily, in April 2018, China indicated its support for a ban of autonomous weapons on the battlefield, only to release plans for an intelligent swarm design on the same day. Lastly, these win-lose dynamics also incentivize speed and the need to cut corners while developing technologies.
'''Why does our current state that pushes for individualism not work?'''
=====Why does the current operating system based on individualism fail?=====
The invisible hand, introduced by the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith, characterizes the putative mechanism through which beneficial social and economic outcomes may arise from the accumulated self-interested actions of individuals, none of whom intends to bring about such outcomes.


This is a bottom-up approach that provides more information processing than a top-down approach. Specifically, with the bottom-up approach, there are many situations where perverse incentives contribute to the misalignment of agents leading to overall detriment.
The invisible hand, introduced by the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith, that characterizes the mechanisms through which beneficial social and economic outcomes may arise from the accumulated self-interested actions of individuals, none of whom intends to bring about such outcomes.
 
This is a bottom-up approach that provides more information processing that a top-down approach. It doesn’t work because there will be misaligned of agents to the whole. Specifically with the bottom-up approach, there could be many situations where there are perverse incentives that are detrimental to the whole.


Here are some [https://civilizationemerging.com/new-economics-series-part-iii/ examples] that Daniel Schmachtenberger provides:  
Here are some [https://civilizationemerging.com/new-economics-series-part-iii/ examples] that Daniel Schmachtenberger provides:  
*'''A for-profit military-industrial complex''' as one of the largest blocks of the global economy. Peace would mean bankruptcy. Ongoing war and threat of war to continually manage is optimal. War for any cause is profitable. Military contractors have massive lobbying resources and major shareholders in decision making positions of military and government.
* '''A for-profit health care system''' that makes no money on healthy people, makes a little on permanent cures and makes the most on long term symptom management
*'''Information as competitive advantage''', incentivizing hiding information, protecting it as intellectual property to keep it from being useful to others, and actively creating and promoting disinformation.
This individualism has encouraged people to construct and defend their niches to benefit themselves. Furthermore, politically, there is a lot of strategy and planning, focusing on the narrow goals of some individuals, which may not necessarily account for the well-being of all.
=== Modern society dramatically affects the planet ===
===== Using up non-renewable resources=====
With exponential technology, we could do enormous damage very quickly. An example is long-range fishing that could deplete the oceans of fish very quickly. The current economy encourages the extraction of dwindling resources faster than they can replenish because a fish is worth nothing in the ocean, but worth something if caught.


Furthermore, our progress has also been dependent on non-renewable resources like oil that have taken its toll on the environment.  
* '''A for-profit military industrial complex''' as one of the largest blocks of the global economy. Peace would mean bankruptcy. Ongoing war and threat of war to continually manage is optimal. War for any cause is profitable. Military contractors have massive lobbying resources, and major shareholders in decision making positions of military and government.
* '''A for-profit health care system''' that makes no money on healthy people, makes a little on permanent cures, makes the most on long term symptom management
* '''Information as competitive advantage''', incentivizing hiding information, protecting it as intellectual property to keep it from being useful to others, and actively creating and promoting disinformation.
 
This individualism has pushed people to create their own niches through niche construction to benefit themselves. Furthermore, there is a lot of strategic and planning that focuses on the narrow goals of the individuals which may not taking into consideration the whole.
 
=== We Are Now Dramatically Affecting Our Planet ===
 
==== We Are Using Up Non-Renewable Resources ====
With exponential technology, we could do enormous damage very quickly. An example is long-range fishing that could deplete the oceans of fish very quickly. Our current system incentives us to extract the dwindling resources faster than they can be replenished because a fish is worth nothing in the ocean, but worth something if caught.
 
Furthermore, our progress has also been dependent on non-renewable resources like oil that have taken its toll on the environment. Like a kid addicted to cigarettes, it is hard to take that away because we have become so dependent on it.
 
==== Open Loops are Affecting the Planet ====
==== Open Loops are Affecting the Planet ====
Currently, we have an "open-loop" system, where there are externalities that are not factored into the system. We have a linear materials / consumption / extraction system where we extract, use one time, and then dispose. Therefore, waste is accumulated, and natural resources depleted.
Currently, we have an “open loop” system where there are externalities that are not factored into the system. We have a linear materials / consumption / extraction system where we extract, use one time and then dispose. This accumulates waste and depletes natural resources.
 
Our current open-loop economic systems that don’t account for the cost to the environment have led to sea level rises, desertification, wildfires, ocean acidification, pollution, soil degradation, extreme weather, species extinction that is at 1000x normal rate, a 76% decline in insect biomass, and many more issues.


Our current open-loop economic systems does not account for the cost to the environment. The consequences are readily observable: sea level rises, desertification, wildfires, ocean acidification, pollution, soil degradation, extreme weather, species extinction at 1000x the normal rate, a 76% decline in insect biomass, and many more issues.
==== We Are Reaching the Carrying Capacity of the Earth ====
==== We Are Reaching the Carrying Capacity of the Earth ====
[[File:Footprint vs capacity.png|center]]
[[File:Footprint vs capacity.png|center]]
With exponential population growth, many believe our ecological footprint has exceeded the planet's biocapacity. If we do not change our current trajectory, we could be on our way to a [[wikipedia:Malthusian_catastrophe|Malthusian catastrophe]], where population growth outpaces agricultural production.
With the exponential population growth, many believe our ecological footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity. If we don’t change our current trajectory, we could be on our way to a [[wikipedia:Malthusian_catastrophe|Malthusian catastrophe]] where population growth outpaces agricultural production.


==== We Are Living in a Fragile, Interconnected World ====
==== We Are Living in a Fragile, Interconnected World ====
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[http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190218-the-lifespans-of-ancient-civilisations-compared Here's the full list of the civilisations displayed above.]
[http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190218-the-lifespans-of-ancient-civilisations-compared Here's the full list of the civilisations displayed above.]  


As illustrated above, every civilization has collapsed. Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity, and socio-economic complexity. Due to global interconnections and dependencies, a severe collapse in one region could prove catastrophic for all of humanity.
As seen above, every civilization has collapsed. Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Because we are now a global civilization, a collapse could be catastrophic for all of humanity.
 
As [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse Luke Kemp wrote], there are many reasons why a civilization could collapse including:
 
* '''Climate change''' - When climate changes, there can be cascading effect. The collapse of the Anasazi, the Tiwanaku civilisation, the Akkadians, the Mayan, the Roman Empire, and many others have all coincided with abrupt climatic changes, usually droughts.
* '''Environmental degradation''' - Societies could collapse when they overshoot the environment’s carrying capacity. Jared Diamond’s Collapse debately argues that this was the fate of Easter Island
* '''External shocks''' - Also known as the “four horsemen”: war, natural disasters, famine and plagues. For example, smallpox arriving in the Americas was devastating and a reason why Aztec and Incas were defeated.
* '''Inequality''' - With technology, there are more winner take all dynamics, and wealth of the top 1% is growing in the US since 1980. Inequality causes social distress, which is arguably one of the reasons why Trump got elected.
* '''Red Queen Effect''' - Statistical analysis on empires suggests that collapse is random and independent of age. An explanation is “Red Queen Effect”: if species are constantly fighting for survival in a changing environment with numerous competitors, there is consistent probability of extinction.
* '''Complexity''' - Collapse expert and historian Joseph Tainter has proposed that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity. We describe further below


As [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse Luke Kemp wrote], there are many reasons why a civilization could collapse, including:
*'''Climate change''' - When climate changes, there can be cascading effect. The collapse of the Anasazi, the Tiwanaku civilization, the Akkadians, the Mayan, the Roman Empire, and many others have coincided with abrupt climatic changes, usually droughts.
*'''Environmental degradation''' - Societies could collapse when they overshoot the environment's carrying capacity. Jared Diamond's Collapse  debatably claimed that this was the fate of Easter Island
*'''External shocks''' - Also known as the "four horsemen": war, natural disasters, famine, and plagues. For example, smallpox arriving in the Americas was devastating, and a reason why Aztec and Incas were defeated.
*'''Inequality''' - With advanced technology, and accelerated winner-take-all dynamics, the wealth of the top 1% is growing in the US since 1980. Inequality causes social distress, which is arguably one of the reasons why authoritarian hardliners get elected.
*'''Red Queen Effect''' - [https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4bbf/b77db6ef43649c998757cf77d9258dabc010.pdf Statistical analysis on empires] suggests that collapse is random and independent of age. An explanation is the "Red Queen Effect": if species are continually fighting for survival in a changing environment with numerous competitors, extinction is probable.
*'''Complexity''' - Collapse expert and historian Joseph Tainter has proposed that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity. We describe this in more detail below.
[[File:Civilization danger signs.png|center|1000x1000px]]
[[File:Civilization danger signs.png|center|1000x1000px]]
Dave Snowden created the Cynefin framework to explain the difference between complicated and complex.  
Dave Snowden created the Cynefin framework to explain the difference between complicated and complex.  
*'''Complicated''' - In principle can be taken apart and put back together again. Cause and effect are easy to follow
*'''Complex''' - Cannot be taken apart and put together again because the phase space in time is changing and dynamic. In complex systems, it is hard to determine cause and effect relationships
Complicated systems tend toward entropy. Complex systems tend toward emergence. Part of the problem we are facing is that we have been trying to replace complex systems with complicated structures for a long time. For instance, the complexity of a tree, as part of the living, natural environment, is transformed into a complicated structure like a house. Moreover, complicated systems are not only prone to failures and anti-fragility but may create externalities. A complicated system may evolve to become ever more complicated until the point where the expenses for its maintenance lead to its collapse.


Here is an example: Because of the difficulty of policing defecting behavior, formal laws are established. These laws are endeavoring to coordinate the complex reality of humans. However, a complicated system can only approximate a complex system; as the complex system changes and new possibilities emerge, the complicated system has to become more complicated.
* '''Complicated''' - In principle can be taken apart and put back together again. Cause and effect are easy to follow
* '''Complex''' - Cannot be taken apart and put together again because the phase space in time is changing and dynamic. In complex systems, it is hard to determine cause and effect relationships


Today, we solve most problems by using complicated systems to manage the complex. Science has been an excellent tool to determine cause and effect for complicated systems. This is why many infectious diseases were eradicated since they are identifiable, and an accurate diagnostic tool likely exists. On the other hand, non-communicable diseases like diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases are harder to overcome because they are complex.
Complicated systems tend toward entropy. Complex systems tend toward emergence. Part of the problem we’re facing is that we’ve been for a long time trying to manage complex systems with complicated structures. And as it has failures and creates externalities, the complicated system becomes more complicated until the point where that complicated system becomes so expensive to keep going that it starts to collapse.  


As Tainter hypothesized in his book "The Collapse of Complex Societies", societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity. Take oil as an example. First, societies start with the lowest hanging fruit. For a little while, there is a substantial boon of surplus capacity and energy that allows the society to grow. Later on, this society finds itself dependent on its tools. As the society picks the low hanging fruits, upgrades to technical infrastructure like pipelines and tankers are needed to be able to continue to maintain the same amount of supply.  
Here is an example: Because of the difficulty of policing defection behavior, you create formal rules.The laws are endeavoring to manage the complex reality of human beings. As this happens, what you’ll ultimately find is that as the complex system just mutates and changes and new possibilities emerge, the complicated system actually has to become more complicated.


What will end up happening inevitably, as Tainter points out, is that society gets an [[wikipedia:Diffusion_of_innovations|S-curve]] happening at the level of innovation. At a certain point, it takes more energy per unit innovation. As society burns through the low hanging fruits, it arrives at an increasingly fragile relationship between how it meets its needs and its relationship with the resources that happen to be in the environment. This tension then generally leads to a collapse.
Today, we solve most problems by using complicated systems to manage the complex. Science has been a great tool to determine cause and effect for complicated systems. This is why we have eradicated many infectious diseases because the disease are clearly identifiable and an accurate diagnostic tool should exist. On the other hand, non-communicable diseases like diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular diseases are much harder to reduce because they are complex.


On a grander scale, our system is optimized to continue growing its complicatedness to reduce everything that is complex into something simple. Our civilization is a kind of [https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer paperclip maximizer]. An example is the emphasis on GDP growth at the expense of other variables. No matter how comprehensive a set of variables we optimize, as complex systems can with current methods only be approximated, there will be imbalances and missing factors. This reductionism leads to externalities.
As Tainter hypothesized in his book “The Collapse of Complex Societies”, societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity. Take oil as an example. First you start with the lowest hanging fruit. What happens is the society becomes addicted to its own tools that initially, they’re really useful. For a little while, there is huge boon of surplus capacity and energy that allows the society to grow. But then the society finds itself addicted to its tools. As you pick the low hanging fruit, you have to actually upgrade your technical infrastructure like pipelines and tankers, to be able to continue to maintain the same amount of supply.  
====Our system is fragile====
As we move up the technological curve, any perturbation may entail more pronounced cascade effects. Our system is currently not set up to have the resilience to deal with these culminations.


One hundred fifty years ago, shutting down the power grid would not have had much impact. However, because we are so reliant on the system, an agent's capacity to shut down the power grid could result in a catastrophe. Centralization and connectedness introduce a fragility, whereby several different ways to shut down the power grid like an EMP, cyber warfare, or even a distributed drone swarm are imaginable. Experts predict that a Carrington flare, a solar geomagnetic storm, would cause widespread electrical disruption, blackouts, and damage to the electrical grid. To make a point, the solar storm of 2012 missed earth's orbit by nine days.
What will end up happening inevitably as Tainter points out, is that you get an S-curve happening at the level of innovation. At a certain point, it takes more energy per unit innovation and then that gives you an S-curve in just the actual throughput of your technical infrastructure. As you have been burned through the low hanging fruit, you end up getting this increasingly fragile relationship between the way that your society goes about meeting its needs and its relationship with the resources that happen to be in the ground. This then generally leads to a collapse.
 
On a grander scale, our system that is optimised to continue growing its complicatedness in order to pursue its aim of reducing everything that is complex into something that is simple. Our civilisation is a kind of paperclip maximiser. An example is the focus on GDP growth at the expense of other variables. By optimizing certain variables, we might be missing the impact on other things, like the environment, that are harder to quantify. This reductionism leads to externalities.
 
As we move up this technological curve, any particular perturbations that can have larger cascade effects. Our system is currently not set up to have the resilience to deal with these issues. Our system has become so complex and everyone is a specialist that a breakdown could be catastrophic.
 
150 years ago, shutting down the power grid wouldn’t have much impact. However, because we are so reliant on the system, any capacity to shut down the power grid could be catastrophic. Because things are centralized and connected, there are a number of different ways to shut down the power grid like an EMP, cyber warfare or even a distributed drone swarm.  
 
Furthermore, experts predict that a Carrington flare, a solar geomagnetic storm, would cause widespread electrical disruption, blackouts and damage to the electrical grid. The solar storm of 2012 missed Earth’s orbit by 9 days.
 
Nature disasters could also compound this issue. An example is the 2010 eruptions of Iceland volcano. Although in a remote location and relatively small for volcanic eruptions, air traffic was disrupted by the ash plumes for an entire week. Overall, 10 million travellers were affected. If the flights were disrupted for more weeks, it could have affected global supply chains.  


Natural disasters could also compound this issue. An example is the 2010 eruptions of Iceland's volcano. Although in a remote location and relatively small for a volcanic eruption, air traffic was disrupted by the ash plumes for an entire week. Overall, 10 million travelers were affected. If the flights had been disrupted for more weeks, it could have affected global supply chains.
==== There is a War on Sensemaking ====
==== There is a War on Sensemaking ====
Finally, there is what Daniel Schmachtenberger has called a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqaotiGWjQ war on sensemaking]. Our information ecology is broken, making it harder to understand what is happening and make the right choices. Every individual or group has vested interests for sharing information, rendering it challenging to assess a source's trustworthiness.
Finally, a big problem is the war on sensemaking. Our information ecology is broken, which makes it harder to understand what is happening and make the right choices. Everyone has vested interests for sharing information, that it is hard to know who to trust.
 
For example, marketing and sales are rarely telling the truth and doing what is best for the customer. There is an incentive to manufacture artificial demand because one group wants to maximize lifetime value of a customer, essentially selling things that people don’t really need. They are essentially benefiting themselves at the expense of the greater whole.  


For example, marketing and sales are rarely telling the truth and doing what is best for the customer. There is an incentive to manufacture artificial demand because one group wants to maximize the customer lifetime value, decoupling revenue from actual use-value.
Furthermore, companies have teams working on hacking our attention by showing supernormal stimuli. Our economic incentives leads to more sensational and fake news to get clicked on and shared. It also pushes platforms to create filter bubbles that confirm their own views and lead to strong ideologies.


Furthermore, companies have teams working on hacking our attention by broadcasting supernormal stimuli. Economic incentives lead to more sensational and fake news being consumed and shared. In a search for user attention, platforms create filter bubbles that repeat and confirm their views and lead to strong ideologies.
Finally, information is used as a competitive advantage. We protect it using intellectual property. With rivalrous dynamics, we are incentivized to hide and misinform others to get a competitive advantage.  


Finally, information is and has always been used as a competitive advantage, epitomized in the concept of intellectual property. With rivalrous dynamics, incentives to conceal and misinform others for a competitive advantage abound.
All these factors make it hard to do proper sensemaking. The sensemaking crisis is characterised by the fact that our ability to trust any mediated communication is rapidly approaching zero.


All these factors make it hard to do proper sensemaking. The sensemaking crisis may be characterized by the observation that our ability to trust mediated communication is rapidly approaching zero.
=== The Need for a Phase Shift / Evolutionary Transition ===
=== The Need for a Phase Shift / Evolutionary Transition ===
As Daniel Schmachtenbeger said, ""if we are gaining the power of gods, then without the love and wisdom of gods, we self-destruct"  ".
As Daniel Schmactenbeger said, 'if we are gaining the power of gods, then without the love and wisdom of gods, we self-destruct.'
 
When things are getting exponentially better and exponentially worse at the same time, neither of those are actually happening. It shows that things are destabilising. So, we will either get the emergence up into a higher degree of order, or an entropic drop down into a lower degree of order. That’s the precipice we’re on.
 
'''There is hope'''


When a shift is getting exponentially better and exponentially worse at the same time, it shows that a system is destabilizing. So, we will either get the emergence up into a higher degree of order or an entropic drop down into a lower degree of order. That is the precipice we are on.
The challenges we face are solvable. For the first time in history we have the technological infrastructure and capability to make the changes necessary to create a world that works not just for human life, but for all life now and in the future. Our problems are not the result of unavoidable human nature, but are the result of systems that are changeable.


The challenges we face are solvable. For the first time in history we have the technological infrastructure and capability to make the changes necessary to create a world that works not just for human life, but for all life now and in the future. Our problems are not the result of unavoidable human nature but are the result of changeable systems.
If there’s one creature that is built to address that sort of problem, it is us. The human niche is niche switching; we can figure what to do in new situations. Collectively, we have figured out what to do when the wisdom of ancestors have run out, and will need to do this again to tackle these problems.


If there is one species capable of addressing this sort of problem, it is us. The human niche is niche switching; we can figure out what to do in new situations. It is what we do better than any other species that has ever existed on earth. We have collectively figured out what to do when the wisdom of ancestors has run out and will need to do this again to tackle these problems.
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